Public procurement and economic growth in Morocco: a nonlinear econometric analysis by governance threshold

Marchés publics et croissance économique au Maroc: une analyse économétrique non linéaire par seuil de gouvernance

Yassine El Henchaoui
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Yassine El Henchaoui: LERSE - laboratory Laboratoire des Etudes et Recherches en Sciences Economiques et de Management-LERSE-doctorant

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Abstract: Public procurement accounts for 15–17% of Morocco's GDP and constitutes a key instrument of economic policy. However, its actual impact on growth depends heavily on governance quality. This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between public procurement, governance and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). The empirical strategy combines OLS regressions and a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (1999) and adapted for univariate time series. The results identify an optimal governance threshold of γ = 0.005. Below this threshold, the procurement-growth coefficient is negative (β₁ = −0.257, p = 0.438). Above it, the coefficient is positive (β₂ = +0.525, p = 0.122), though statistically insignificant at the 5% level a result that calls for cautious interpretation. Education spending is a significant growth driver. This paper fills an empirical gap by applying, for the first time on Moroccan data for the post-2015 period, a two-regime governance-conditioned decomposition incorporating digitalisation and competition indicators rarely used in the literature.

Keywords: Public procurement accounts for 15–17% of Morocco's GDP and constitutes a key instrument of economic policy. However; a two-regime governance-conditioned decomposition incorporating digitalisation and competition indicators rarely used in the literature.; for the first time on Moroccan data for the post-2015 period; though statistically insignificant at the 5% level a result that calls for cautious interpretation. Education spending is a significant growth driver. This paper fills an empirical gap by applying; p = 0.122); the coefficient is positive (β₂ = +0.525; p = 0.438). Above it; the procurement-growth coefficient is negative (β₁ = −0.257; governance and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). The empirical strategy combines OLS regressions and a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (1999) and adapted for univariate time series. The results identify an optimal governance threshold of γ = 0.005. Below this threshold; its actual impact on growth depends heavily on governance quality. This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between public procurement; H57; marchés publics gouvernance croissance économique Maroc économétrie. Classification JEL : O43 H57 C24 D73 Type du papier : Recherche empirique public procurement governance economic growth Morocco econometrics. JEL Classification : O43 H57 C24 D73 Paper type : Empirical Research; marchés publics; gouvernance; croissance économique; Maroc; économétrie. Classification JEL : O43; C24; D73 Type du papier : Recherche empirique public procurement; governance; economic growth; Morocco; econometrics. JEL Classification : O43; D73 Paper type : Empirical Research (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-16
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Published in International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, 2026, Volume 7, Issue 04 (2026), pp. 692-705 (Issue 04 (2026), pp. 692-705), Issue 04 (2026), pp. 692-705. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.19537716⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604177

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19537716

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