The Thwarted Resilience Trap: Political Survival, External Stabilization, and Structural Non-Transformation in Fragile States

La trappe de résilience contrariée: Survie politique, stabilisation externe et non-transformation structurelle dans les États fragiles

Etienne Fakaba Sissoko () and Pierre Bayo ()
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Etienne Fakaba Sissoko: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako
Pierre Bayo: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali

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Abstract: This article examines the effects of political shocks on growth and structural transformation in a context of persistent fragility, using Mali as a case study for the period 1990–2023. It employs a counterfactual strategy combining synthetic control methods and time-series analysis to estimate Mali's trajectories in the absence of the 2012 shock. The findings reveal a robust decoupling: the shock generates a negative but transitory effect on growth, while producing a persistent deterioration in structural transformation. This divergence indicates that macroeconomic resilience does not translate into a dynamic of productive transformation. To interpret this result, the article develops the framework of the thwarted resilience trap, in which stabilization mechanisms—especially external ones—relieve short-term constraints while weakening incentives for the accumulation of capabilities. The results are consistent with this mechanism, without establishing strict causal identification. The article thus redefines resilience as a non-monotonic property and proposes an interpretation based on an intertemporal trade-off.

Date: 2026
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Published in International Journal of Strategic Management and Economic Studies (IJSMES), 2026, 5 (2), pp.264-279. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.19855453⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05605903

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19855453

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