Tax Pressure and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Morocco Using an ARDL-ECM Framework

Pression fiscale et ajustement macroéconomique dans les économies émergentes: évidence empirique du Maroc à partir d’un modèle ARDL-ECM

Mounir Atlassi, Mohamed Karim and Ilham Dkhissi
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Mounir Atlassi: University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco
Mohamed Karim: University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco
Ilham Dkhissi: BEAR Lab - RBS - UIR - BEAR Lab - Rabat Business School - International University of Rabat

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Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants and dynamic adjustment of tax pressure in Morocco over the period 2000–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and its associated Error Correction Model (ECM). While the empirical literature on Moroccan taxation remains largely static and descriptive, offering limited insight into short-run adjustment dynamics, this study addresses this gap by providing a dynamic analysis of fiscal adjustment mechanisms in an emerging economy context. The results reveal a mixed order of integration among the variables, justifying the use of the ARDL approach. Although the bounds test yields inconclusive evidence of cointegration, the error correction term is negative and highly statistically significant (−0.833, p

Keywords: Tax pressure; Fiscal policy; ARDL-ECM; Macroeconomic determinants; Fiscal adjustment. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-14
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05622906v1
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Published in International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, inPress, 7 (06 (2026)), pp. 23-40. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.20045157⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05622906

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20045157

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