Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change

Johannes Mohr, Félix Bastit, Marc Grünig, Thomas Knoke, Werner Rammer (), Cornelius Senf, Dominik Thom and Rupert Seidl
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Johannes Mohr: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich
Félix Bastit: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Marc Grünig: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute [Basel]
Thomas Knoke: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich
Werner Rammer: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich
Cornelius Senf: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich
Dominik Thom: Chair Silviculture, Inst Silviculture & Forest Protect, Tharandt - TUD Dresden Univ Technol, University of Vermont [Burlington]
Rupert Seidl: TUM - Technische Universität Munchen = Technical University Munich = Université Technique de Munich, Berchtesgaden Natl Pk, Berchtesgaden

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Abstract: Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe's timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe's forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative.

Date: 2025-09-18
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Published in Nature Climate Change, 2025, 15 (10), pp.1078-1083. ⟨10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05650731

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9

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