Demographic dynamics, urban expansion, and social inclusion in Burkina Faso's small towns (1985-2019): A context-aware decoupling analysis

Mansourou Cissé (), Malicki Zorom, Xiaoye Tong, Cécile Tannier (), Harouna Karambiri and Stéphanie Horion
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Mansourou Cissé: 2iE - Institut international d'ingénierie de l'eau et de l'environnement, IGN - Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management [Copenhagen] - Faculty of Science [Copenhagen] - UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Malicki Zorom: 2iE - Institut international d'ingénierie de l'eau et de l'environnement
Xiaoye Tong: IGN - Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management [Copenhagen] - Faculty of Science [Copenhagen] - UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Cécile Tannier: ThéMA - Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UMLP - Université Marie et Louis Pasteur - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe
Harouna Karambiri: 2iE - Institut international d'ingénierie de l'eau et de l'environnement
Stéphanie Horion: IGN - Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management [Copenhagen] - Faculty of Science [Copenhagen] - UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague

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Abstract: Small towns constitute most of Africa's urban settlements, yet their spatial dynamics remain poorly understood in relation to demographic change, land-use efficiency, and social inclusion. Existing decoupling models overlook initial land-consumption conditions, path dependence, and broader urban subsystem behavior. This study examines 98 small towns in Burkina Faso through five analyses: growth trajectory clustering, Gibrat's law testing, land-population elasticity modeling, a benchmark-adjusted Tapio decoupling framework, and social outcome assessment. Results reveal sustained urban growth with two accelerated built-up expansion waves (1995-2000 and 2015-2019), reflecting decentralization policies, real-estate liberalization, and conflict-induced internal displacement. Four persistent growth regimes emerge, reflecting administrative status, accessibility, metropolitan influence, and local socioeconomic conditions. Population growth is largely size-independent, while the population-built-up relationship progressively converges toward proportionality (β = 0.96), indicating increasing spatial-demographic coherence. Persistent outliers highlight the influence of conflict, migration, mining activity, and geographic isolation. Against Burkina Faso's national benchmark of 75 m² per capita, the share of towns exhibiting inefficient land expansion increased from 40% (2005-2010) to 78% (2015-2019). Although some land-use efficiency indicators are statistically associated with poverty incidence, they explain no meaningful share of the observed variation in poverty and wealth inequality. Context-aware efficiency classes show no significant relationship with either indicator. These results suggest that compliance with land-use benchmarks does not automatically translate into social inclusion. By integrating demographic, spatial, institutional, and social dimensions, this study proposes a replicable framework for diagnosing urban expansion in data-scarce regions and highlights the need for context-sensitive, governance-aware land-use policies in rapidly urbanizing small-town systems.

Keywords: Urban decoupling; Poverty; Inequality; Land consumption efficiency; Stochastic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05675018v1
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Published in Land Use Policy, 2026, 170, pp.108187. ⟨10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108187⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05675018

DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108187

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