Projecting future damage costs of non‐native species using combined dynamical and cost–density equations

Danish Ahmed (), Corey Bradshaw, Noor Tahat, Emma Hudgins (), Pierre Courtois (), Philip Hulme (), Yuya Watari, Ali Tarkan, Ismael Soto (), Phillip Haubrock (), Paride Balzani () and Ross Cuthbert ()
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Danish Ahmed: GUST - Gulf University for Science and Technology
Corey Bradshaw: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia]
Noor Tahat: GUST - Gulf University for Science and Technology
Emma Hudgins: Carleton University - Department of Biology [Ottawa] - Carleton University, University of Melbourne
Pierre Courtois: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier
Philip Hulme: Lincoln University [Nouvelle-Zélande]
Yuya Watari: FFPRI - Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
Ali Tarkan: University of Lódź = Uniwersytet Łódzki
Ismael Soto: University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia]
Phillip Haubrock: University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia], BU - Bournemouth University [Poole]
Paride Balzani: University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia]
Ross Cuthbert: QUB - Queen's University [Belfast]

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Abstract: Biological invasions threaten biodiversity, economic stability, and public health, exacerbated by intensive global trade and transport. The economic costs of these invasions have exceeded US$2 trillion globally and continue to increase. Although past invasion costs have been described across various contexts, there are few robust projections of future costs, limiting effective management planning. We developed a mathematical framework to project future economic damage caused by biological invasions, combining cost-density relationships with a density-time function based on logistic population growth. We tested the model on five well-documented non-native mammal species in Japan, a country with long-term, high-resolution invasion cost records and a

Keywords: impact projections; InvaCost; invasion management; logistic growth; non-native species; economic costs; damage modeling; biological invasions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05690638v1
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Published in Ecological Applications, 2026, 36, ⟨10.1002/eap.70252⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05690638

DOI: 10.1002/eap.70252

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