The FPM model, a prediction model for the most diverse complex phenomena

Le modèle FPM, un modèle de prédiction pour des phénomènes complexes les plus divers

Alain Oustaloup, François Levron, Stéphane Victor () and Luc Dugard ()
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Alain Oustaloup: IMS - Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
François Levron: IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Bordeaux INP - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Stéphane Victor: IMS - Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Luc Dugard: GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, GIPSA-SAFE - GIPSA - Safe, Controlled and Monitored Systems - GIPSA-DAS - GIPSA - Département Automatique et Sûreté des systèmes - GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes

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Abstract: Recognized as a "CNRS 2021 highlight" and distinguished by its predictions for complex phenomena of a different nature (contaminations, vaccinations, CO₂, temperature, mean sea level, France's debt, ...), the FPM (Fractional Power Model), in power-law and with three parameters, is unified thanks to a unification of complexity, simple due to its overall representation of complexity and predictive because of its ability to make the best use of the past to better predict the future, making it a good predictor for decision-makers.

Date: 2026-07-22
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05700939v1
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Published in 2026

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