Estimating the direct impact of mega sport events on domestic tourism demand: A micro-level approach using Paris 2024

Louinord Voltaire (), Sauveur Giannoni (), Philippe Chagnon () and Antoine Rogier ()
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Louinord Voltaire: TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille
Sauveur Giannoni: Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli], LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]
Philippe Chagnon: TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille
Antoine Rogier: UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, CRISS - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences de la Société - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France

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Abstract: Research on mega sport events and tourism demand has largely overlooked domestic tourism and relied on aggregated data that mask individual behavioural adjustments. Using Paris 2024 as a case study, we propose a methodology to estimate the direct impact of mega sport events on domestic tourism at the individual level. A retrospective paired-sample survey is used to construct a two-period panel dataset (2023–2024). Individuals are classified as positively affected, negatively affected, or unaffected using self-reported motivations validated by counterfactual behaviour absent the event to mitigate ex-post rationalisation bias. Tourism demand remains unchanged based on the full sample due to offsetting behavioural responses: travel versus stay-at-home attraction among positively affected, and substitution versus crowding-out among negatively affected. However, focusing on actual travellers, affected individuals exhibit a larger increase in overnight stays than unaffected residents, without increasing visit frequency. Micro-level approaches are critical to capture how mega events reshape tourism demand.

Date: 2027-02
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Published in Tourism Management, 2027, 118, pp.105500. ⟨10.1016/j.tourman.2026.105500⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05706212

DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2026.105500

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