Flux Capacity and Structural Entropy

May Chidiac and Mireille Chidiac El Hajj
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May Chidiac: LU / ULB - الجامعة اللبنانية [بيروت] = Lebanese University [Beirut] = Université libanaise [Beyrouth]
Mireille Chidiac El Hajj: LU / ULB - الجامعة اللبنانية [بيروت] = Lebanese University [Beirut] = Université libanaise [Beyrouth], CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne

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Abstract: Political accountability in fragile states is often symbolic rather than transformative. This study examines why increased digital civic engagement and media exposure fail to generate systemic political reform in Lebanon. Using a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, it combines a nationwide survey of 882 adults with in-depth interviews to analyze accountability dynamics amid prolonged institutional collapse. Results show that partisan media exposure strengthens trust in sectarian elites ( = 0.45) while reducing perceived urgency for reform, reinforcing political inertia. In contrast, engagement with non-partisan media promotes adaptive civic participation through Flux Capacity, defined as individuals' ability to sustain engagement under structural uncertainty ( = 0.28). Qualitative findings reveal that citizens navigate systemic disorder (Structural Entropy) by curating information, pacing engagement, and tolerating ambiguity. The study confirms an Accountability Paradox whereby digital media imposes reputational costs on elites ( = 0.49) without producing policy change. Rather than disrupting extractive systems, digital media stabilizes political endurance in fragile contexts.

Date: 2026-08-04
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Published in Contemporary Arab Affairs, 2026, 19 (3), pp.433-457. ⟨10.1163/17550920-bja00112⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05714561

DOI: 10.1163/17550920-bja00112

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