General Government Final Consumption Expenditure and Nominal GDP Per Capita in Five East African Countries: A Panel Association Analysis

Wycliffe Mugun
Additional contact information
Wycliffe Mugun: Department of Economics, Kaimosi Friends University, Kaimosi, Kenya.

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: This study examines within-country associations between general government final consumption expenditure and nominal gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda over 2005–2024 using annual World Development Indicators data. GDP per capita in current US dollars is the outcome, and general government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is the principal explanatory variable; the latter measures government current consumption rather than total public expenditure. Foreign direct investment, population growth, inflation, the official exchange rate, and official development assistance are included as controls. Descriptive and correlation analyses use 100 country-year observations, whereas the log specification is estimated on 84 observations because natural logarithms are undefined for nonpositive values. Country fixed effects are emphasised because persistent country-specific heterogeneity is plausibly correlated with fiscal and macroeconomic covariates. The Hausman comparison is reported, but its non-positive-definite covariance-difference warning means it is not treated as a decisive model-selection test. In the conventional fixed-effects estimates, the coefficient on government final consumption is -0.5811; foreign direct investment and the official exchange rate have positive coefficients, population growth and official development assistance have negative coefficients, and the inflation coefficient is close to zero. These estimates use conventional covariance estimates. Heteroskedasticity is detected, the panel contains only five countries, some variables display nonstationary behaviour, and supplementary cointegration output does not establish a long-run equilibrium relationship. The results are therefore interpreted as exploratory within-sample associations rather than causal, structural, or long-run effects. Particular caution is required because the outcome is nominal and US-dollar denominated and because the fiscal regressor is expressed as a share of GDP.

Date: 2026-10-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Asian Journal of Economics, Finance and Management , 2026, 8 (1), pp.1057-1070

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05783904

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().