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The Economics of a Lost Deal: Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh

Jean Charles Hourcade () and Frédéric Ghersi ()
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Jean Charles Hourcade: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, nvironmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from the uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for equestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that the restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to $100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakech climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto's unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.

Keywords: climate negotiations; 2010 carbon markets; uncertainty about abatement costs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00009838
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Published in The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, 2002, 23 (3), pp.1-26

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