Multi- stage: a rule-based evolution of future commitments under the climate change convention

Michel den Elzen, Marcel Berk, Paul Lucas, Patrick Criqui () and Alban Kitous
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Michel den Elzen: RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
Marcel Berk: RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
Paul Lucas: RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
Patrick Criqui: LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This article presents the regional emission targets corresponding to different climate regimes for differentiating commitments beyond 2012 on the basis of the Multi-Stage approach. This approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules. The analysis focuses on two global greenhouse gas emission profiles resulting in CO2-equivalent concentrations stabilising at 550 and 650 ppmv in 2100 and 2150, respectively. Three Multi-Stage cases have been developed in order to assess different types of thresholds. These share three consecutivestages representing different commitments: stage 1 – no quantitative commitments; stage 2 – emission–limitation targets and stage 3 – emission reduction targets. The analysis shows that by 2025 all three cases result in emission reduction objectives for all Annex I regions of at least 30–55% below their 1990 levels for 550 ppmv, whereas for 650 ppmv target they range from 0 to 20%. Furthermore, early participation is required of the major non-Annex I regions through emission limitation targets i.e. before 2025 and 2050 for the 550 and 650 ppmvtargets, respectively. The first participation threshold for adopting emission–limitation targets on the basis of a capability–responsibility index (as introduced here) can provide for a balanced and timely participation of non-Annex I regions. Major strengths and weaknesses of the climate regimes are discussed and important obstacles and pre-conditions for their feasibilityand acceptability are highlighted.

Keywords: climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; differentiation; emission trading; changement climatique; marché de permis; dioxyde de carbone; scénario; différenciation; post-Kyoto (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-02
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00068636v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Published in International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 2006, 6 (1), pp.1-28. ⟨10.1007/s10784-004-5645-3⟩

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Journal Article: Multi-Stage: A Rule-Based Evolution of Future Commitments under the Climate Change Convention (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00068636

DOI: 10.1007/s10784-004-5645-3

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