Le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites en France: peut-il faire face au déséquilibre financier prévisible du régime général ?

Anne Lavigne

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Abstract: Current and expected demographic and economic trends are likely to jeopardise the financial sustainability of the French retirement pension scheme which mostly relies on a pay-as-you-go basis. In 1999, the French government set up a Pension Trust Fund (Fonds de réserve pour les retraites, FRR) whose main objective was to introduce some public funding in the PAYG basic pension scheme to cope with its expected financial unsustainability within the next decade. This paper presents some simulation results on the projected evolution of the French pension trust fund under various assumptions. The main idea is to optimise the profile of the trend in contribution rates needed to meet the objective of a balanced basic pension scheme over the period 2006-2050. Our simulations show that under plausible assumptions the amount of funding is likely to be less important than the Government expected at the FRR set up, about 90 billion euros. Some stress-tests show that severe shocks on financial markets may dramatically affect the funding profile of the FRR.

Keywords: pension trust fund; retirement; pay-as-you-go system; retraite; répartition; fonds de réserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Retraite et société, 2006, 48, pp.174-201

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00081411

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