Uncertainties in Forecasting: The Role of Strategic Modeling to Control Them

Charles Raux ()
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Charles Raux: LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The growing concern about environmental depredations from transport activity at short-range and long-range horizon calls for policies aiming at reorientation of travel demand trends. However every transport policy is subject to risks, environmental or financial ones, and has often long-range effects. This explains the renewed interest in tools which allow detection of these risks and their consequences. There is however a methodological challenge in the elaboration of these simulation tools because we have to take into account many different uncertainties.This paper analyzes the uncertainties associated with transport forecasts using a strategic model recently developed for Lyon's conurbation. Different sources of error and uncertainly are tested and compared by means of the model. It is argued that a strategy of systematic exploration of uncertainly is the preferred way to cope with it and to detect long-term risks associated with transport policy.

Keywords: Travel modelling; Strategic planning; Urban area; Uncertainty; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00093145
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Published in IATBR, MAHNASSANI H.-S. (Eds.). In Perpetual Motion. Travel Behaviour Research, Opportunities and Application Challenges - Eight International Conference on Travel Behavior Research - (Selected Proceedings), Section 8. Forecasting. – Chapter 24., Pergamon, pp. 505-526, 2002

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