Conditions monétaires et activité économique dans la zone euro

Jean-François Goux
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Jean-François Goux: GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating relation with the euro-dollar real exchange rate, the euribor and the money supply M3 in real terms. In the short-run, the influence of monetary policy shocks and exchange rate shocks determines the evolution of industrial production : it reaches its full effect after about one year ; however, the influence of monetary policy through the rate of intervention of the BCE is three times higher than that of exchange rate.

Keywords: VAR model; European economy; money; monetary policy; monetary conditions; modèle VAR; économie européenne; monnaie; politique monétaire; conditions monétaires (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-05
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Published in 2003

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00178561

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