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Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

Abdou Ka Diongue, Dominique Guegan () and Bertrand Vignal ()
Additional contact information
Dominique Guegan: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Bertrand Vignal: EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF

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Abstract: In this article, we investigate conditional mean and variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. We are particularly interested in calculating the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to electricity prices and test spot prices forecasts until one month ahead forecast. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria.

Keywords: Conditional mean; conditional variance; forecast; electricity prices; GIGARCH process; Moyenne conditionnelle; variance conditionnelle; prévisions; prix spot d'électricité (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00188264v2
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Published in 2007

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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process (2007) Downloads
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