Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers

Christophe Boucher () and Bertrand Maillet ()
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Christophe Boucher: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, A.A.Advisors-QCG - ABN AMRO
Bertrand Maillet: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, A.A.Advisors-QCG - ABN AMRO, EIF - Europlace Institute of Finance

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Abstract: This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better predictors of future returns than the aggregate price-earning ratio and several other popular forecasting variables. The proposed method, based on a wavelet multi-scaling analysis, explicitly accounts for the variations at different time scales in the expected cash-flow growth and expected returns.

Keywords: Risk financial cycles; forecasting; wavelets; Cycles financiers; prévision; ondelettes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00565229
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Published in 2011

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