Marge extensive du commerce et synchronisation des cycles

Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte (), Jean-Christophe Poutineau () and Fabien Rondeau
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Jean-Christophe Poutineau: CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper shows that an increase in trade integration has mixed effects on business cycle synchronization. In a two country DSGE model with flexible prices we show that an increase in the extensive margin of trade reduces the coupling of business cycles with regard to a trade increase affecting only the intensive margin. This phenomenon comes from a dampening in the terms of trade adjustment. Empirically we find that, for a group of ten European countries between 1995 and 2007, an increase of 1% in the extensive margin of bilateral trade has reduced business cycle synchronization by something between 0.11 % and 0.34 % depending on the choice of control variables and the definition of the extensive margin of trade.

Keywords: Union économique et monétaire; intégration commerciale; synchronisation des cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Published in Revue Economique, 2012, 63 (3), pp.523-534

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00688630

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