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Can external shocks explain the Asian side of global imbalances ? Lessons from a structural VAR model with block exogeneity

Cyriac Guillaumin () and Jean-Baptiste Gossé

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Abstract: During the last decade, we observed the accumulation of global imbalances resulting primarily from massive current account imbalances in the US and in Asia. Most of the attention has been focused on the US side of global imbalances and few studies have been dedicated to the large current account surpluses in Asia. The aim of this paper is to study the impact of external shocks on Asian countries in order to determine if these can account for the Asian side of global imbalances. To this end, we estimate a structural VAR model with block exogeneity using contemporaneous and long-run restrictions and Bayesian inference. The three external shocks of our model are an oil shock, a US monetary shock and a US financial shock. Our main findings are as follows: (i) external shocks account for the current account surplus in Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand and, to a lesser extent, in Japan and Indonesia; (ii) the oil shock and the US monetary shock seem to have influenced current account balances through real and monetary channels, and the US financial shock through financial channel.

Keywords: current account imbalances; external shocks; structural VAR Models; block exogeneity; East Asia; zone monétaire; modèle; crise; crise financière; crise monétaire; politique monétaire; modèle VAR; Asie de l'Est (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00706743
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Published in 2012, pp.29

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Journal Article: Can External Shocks Explain the Asian Side of Global Imbalances? Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Can external shocks explain the Asian side of global imbalances? Lessons from a structural VAR model with block exogeneity (2013)
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