Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals

Claudio Araujo, Catherine Araujo Bonjean () and Stéphanie Brunelin ()
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Catherine Araujo Bonjean: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Stéphanie Brunelin: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper aims at exploiting grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify markets which play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying price crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period preceding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements at leading markets during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future price crises.

Keywords: Africa; food security; early warning system; discrete choice panel model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Published in World Development, 2012, pp.1882-1894

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Journal Article: Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00714092

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