La prévision conjoncturelle en France à l'épreuve de la crise de 2008-2009

Thomas Jobert ()
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Thomas Jobert: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur

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Abstract: The forecast errors are most important in periods of downturn. This fact is also verified for the crisis of 2008-2009, but quantitative analysis shows that if forecast errors are substantial, they are less important than those made during the previous crisis of 2001-2003. They come from three sources: first, the international environment has created an extremely high uncertainty. Then, we must acknowledge the limits of tools based on changing values in exceptional past periods. Finally, surveys have shown their limits in this crisis.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Forecasting; Evaluating Forecast; Prévisions Macroéconomiques; Evaluation des prévisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12-01
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Published in Économie appliquée : archives de l'Institut de science économique appliquée, 2010, 63 (4), pp.49-71

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00721582

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