The Effect of Oil Price on China's Exports

João Faria, Andre Mollick (), Pedro Albuquerque and Miguel Leon-Ledesma
Additional contact information
João Faria: IPED - Institute for Policy and Economic Development - UTEP - University of Texas [El Paso]

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992-2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.

Keywords: Oil prices; Competitiveness; Exports; Productivity; ARDL model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

Published in China Economic Review, 2009, 20 (4), pp.793-805. ⟨10.1016/j.chieco.2009.04.003⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: The effect of oil price on China's exports (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00747033

DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2009.04.003

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().