Quel rôle pour les scénarios Facteur 4 dans la construction de la décision publique ?

Sandrine Mathy, Meike Fink and Ruben Bibas
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Meike Fink: Réseau Action Climat

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Abstract: Seven long-term prospective studies representing the energy trajectories consistent with a Factor Four, i.e. a 75% reduction of greenhouse gases emissions in 2050 in France have been identified. We analyze their methodology and the high dispersion of results. Then we discuss the role of scenario-making. Among them, only one of the scenarios achieves the Factor Four, thereby showing the limitations of these studies. On the methodological side, the engineering models used appear as black boxes, each using their own technological hypotheses and not readily understandable by the non-specialist. Therefore, exchanges between modelers, economists, technologists, sociologists and representatives of the civil society are a key factor for these scenario elaboration as their legitimacy stems from social and politic appropriation of scientific results.

Keywords: factor Four; technology Economy models; carbon price; climatic policies; energy mix; methodology; energy scenarios; greenhouse gases; méthodologie; facteur 4; modèles technico-économiques; prix du carbone; politiques climatiques; mix énergétique; scénarios énergétiques; émissions; gaz à effet de serre (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00797419v1
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Published in Développement durable et territoires, 2011, 2 (1), pp.1-22. ⟨10.4000/developpementdurable.8802⟩

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Working Paper: Quel rôle pour les scénarios Facteur 4 dans la construction de la décision publique ? (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00797419

DOI: 10.4000/developpementdurable.8802

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