Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach

Peter Martey Addo (), Monica Billio and Dominique Guegan ()
Additional contact information
Peter Martey Addo: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy]
Dominique Guegan: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: We propose a transparent way of establishing a turning point chronology for the Euro-zone business cycle. Our analysis is achieve by exploiting the concept of recurrence plots, in this case distance plot, to characterize and detect turning points in the business cycle for any economic system. Firstly, we exploit the concept of recurrence plots on the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) series to serve as a beachmark for our analysis since there already exist reference chronology for the US business cycle, provided by the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We then use this concept in constructing a turning point chronology for the Euro-zone business cycle. In particular, we show that this approach permits to detect turning points and study the business cycle without a priori assumptions on the statistical properties on the underlying economic indicator.

Keywords: points de retournement; zone euro; cycles économiques; Recurrence Plots; Euro-zone; turning points; economic cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00803457v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in 2013

Downloads: (external link)
https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00803457v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach (2013)
Working Paper: Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach (2013)
Working Paper: Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00803457

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().