Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios

Anil Markandaya, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino, Patrick Criqui () and Silvana Mima ()
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Anil Markandaya: BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino: BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change
Patrick Criqui: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Silvana Mima: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Few papers have analysed the consequences of low climate stabilisation. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

Keywords: Convergence; Economic growth; Climate policy; Partial Equilibrium models; Energy forecasting; Abatement cost; Energy systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00872630v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Energy Policy, 2014, 64, pp.288-301. ⟨10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.046⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00872630

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.046

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