European energy efficiency and decarbonization strategies beyond 2030: A sectoral multi-model decomposition

Hannah Förster, Katja Schumacher, Enrica De Cian (), Michael Hübler, Ilkka Keppo, Silvana Mima () and Ronald Sands ()
Additional contact information
Hannah Förster: Oko-Institut e.V.
Ilkka Keppo: UCL Energy Institute - UCL - University College of London [London]
Silvana Mima: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects : affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis; decarbonization; model intercomparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00939253v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in Climate Change Economics, 2013, 4 (suppl. 1, Special Issue on "The EMF28 Study on Scenarios for Transforming the European Energy System), pp.1340004/1-29. ⟨10.1142/S2010007813400058⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 – A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition (2014)
Journal Article: EUROPEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DECARBONIZATION STRATEGIES BEYOND 2030 — A SECTORAL MULTI-MODEL DECOMPOSITION (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00939253

DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400058

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