Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: an assessment with the POLES model

Patrick Criqui (), Silvana Mima (), Philippe Menanteau and Alban Kitous
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Patrick Criqui: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Silvana Mima: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

Keywords: Path dependency; Learning by doing; Technological change; Technology modelling; Learning by searching; Mitigation scenarios; Emission constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00999280v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36)

Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 90, pp.119-136. ⟨10.1016/j.techfore.2014.05.005⟩

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Journal Article: Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00999280

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.05.005

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