Modeling earthquake dynamics

Arthur Charpentier and Marilou Durand
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Marilou Durand: UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal

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Abstract: In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1–11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251–269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.

Keywords: seismic gap hypothesis; Duration; earthquakes; generalized linear models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Journal of Seismology, 2015, 19 (3), pp.721-739. ⟨10.1007/s10950-015-9489-9⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01241841

DOI: 10.1007/s10950-015-9489-9

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