Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration

Evelina Trutnevyte, Céline Guivarch, Robert Lempert and Neil Strachan
Additional contact information
Evelina Trutnevyte: ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich], UCL - University College of London [London]
Robert Lempert: Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition - Rand Corporation
Neil Strachan: UCL - University College of London [London]

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques

Keywords: scenario; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01290284v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Published in Climatic Change, 2016, 135 (3-4), pp.373-379. ⟨10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01290284v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01290284

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().