The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Céline Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg and Vanessa Schweizer
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Julie Rozenberg: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Vanessa Schweizer: University of Waterloo [Waterloo]

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Abstract: The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a "scenario discovery" cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.

Keywords: Database; Scenario discovery; Emissions scenarios; Socioeconomic pathways; Diversity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01292901v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in Environmental Modelling and Software, 2016, 80, pp.336-363. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01292901

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006

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