Spikes and crashes in the oil market
Sofiane Aboura () and
Post-Print from HAL
Over the last three decades, advanced economies have been facing a substantial rise not only in the crude oil price, but also in the oil price volatility. Quantifying the tail risk has become a prominent issue for investors and policy makers given the repeated spikes and crashes during previous years. This article reveals the existence of a tail risk hidden in the oil market by applying, for the first time, an extreme value theory analysis with a quantile regression procedure. An empirical test is carried out on the daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices from 1983 to 2013. The main results indicate that the WTI becomes extreme from a daily variation of +5.0% and −10.0%. In addition, the maximum one-day variation which should be exceeded only once per century is +23% and −33%. Finally, the tail risk is overall borne by the oil-importing countries. The main policy implication of these findings is to design policy measures that consider the existence of price-volatility thresholds above/below which the oil market becomes unstable.
Keywords: Crude oil market; Volatility; Quantile regression; Extreme value theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01348711
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Published in Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, 2016, 36, pp.615-623. ⟨10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.07.002⟩
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
Journal Article: Spikes and crashes in the oil market (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01348711
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().