Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, Valentina Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, J. Gernaat, Céline Guivarch, P. Havlik, Daniel Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price and D. P. van Vuuren
Additional contact information
E. Borgonovo: DEC and ELEUSI - Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]
P. Capros: E3MLab - Institute of Communication and Computer Systems - NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
P. Havlik: Ecosystem Services and Management - IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
I. Keppo: UCL Energy Institute - UCL - University College of London [London]
V. Krey: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
E. Ó Broin: Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg]
D. P. van Vuuren: Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht], Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

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Abstract: Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Keywords: Climate-change mitigation; Socioeconomic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01-16
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Published in Nature Climate Change, 2017, ⟨10.1038/nclimate3199⟩

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Journal Article: Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01437549

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3199

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