Would CEEC International Trade be Higher with the Euro?: Evidence from Sectoral Data

Frédérique Festoc (), Guillaume L'Oeillet () and Nolwenn Roudaut ()
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Frédérique Festoc: LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]
Guillaume L'Oeillet: CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nolwenn Roudaut: LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]

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Abstract: This paper investigates the potential gains in trade for five Central and Eastern European Countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) generated by participation in the euro area. We use a sectoral approach to assess the impact of the CEECs' export structures on trade if they adopt the euro. We estimated a static gravity model on 21 OECD countries (excluding the CEECs) between 1993 and 2008 to assess the euro effects in 10 different manufacturing sectors. Then we assess the potential gains or losses for the CEECs of adopting the euro in a counterfactual exercise. Our results indicate that the five CEECs would benefit from the euro since a euro effect is significant in 9 sectors. The widespread euro effect across sectors (between 8% and 44%) shows an unequal impact on the exports of countries. The adoption of the euro would be more advantageous for Estonia than for Slovakia.

Keywords: Trade integration; Monetary Union; CEEC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Revue d'Etudes Comparatives Est-Ouest, 2017, 48 (3-4), pp.247-275. ⟨10.4074/S0338059917003084⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01683741

DOI: 10.4074/S0338059917003084

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