Federal minimum wage hikes do reduce teenage employment. A replication study of Bazen & Marimoutou (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2002)

Stephen Bazen and Vêlayoudom Marimoutou ()
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Vêlayoudom Marimoutou: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: In 2002 we published a paper in which we used state space time series methods to analyse the teenage employment-federal minimum wage relationship in the US (Bazen and Marimoutou, 2002). The study used quarterly data for the 46 year period running from 1954 to 1999. We detected a small, negative but statistically significant effect of the federal minimum wage on teenage employment, at a time when some studies were casting doubt on the existence of such an effect. In this note we re-estimate the original model with a further 16 years of data (up to 2015). We find that the model satisfactorily tracks the path of the teenage employment-population ratio over this 60 year period, and yields a consistently negative and statistically significant effect of minimum wages on teenage employment. The conclusion reached is the same as in the original paper, and the elasticity estimates very similar: federal minimum wage hikes lead to a reduction in teenage employment with a short run elasticity of around – 0.13. The estimated long run elasticity of between – 0.37 and – 0.47 is less stable, but is nevertheless negative and statistically significant.

Keywords: minimum wage; teenage employment; state space methods; unobserved components model; replication study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01981119v1
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Published in International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics, 2018, 2 (2018-5), pp.2018 - 2023. ⟨10.18718/81781.9⟩

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Journal Article: Federal minimum wage hikes do reduce teenage employment: A replication study of Bazen & Marimoutou (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2002) (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01981119

DOI: 10.18718/81781.9

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