Space Matters: Extending Sensitivity Analysis to Initial Spatial Conditions in Geosimulation Models

Juste Raimbault (), Clémentine Cottineau (), Marion Le Texier (), Florent Le Néchet () and Romain Reuillon ()
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Juste Raimbault: Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL - UCL - University College of London [London], ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Institut Curie [Paris] - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Clémentine Cottineau: UP1 UFR08 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Géographie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Marion Le Texier: uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg = University of Luxembourg = Universität Luxemburg
Florent Le Néchet: LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées
Romain Reuillon: ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Institut Curie [Paris] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Although simulation models of socio-spatial systems in general and agent-based models in particular represent a fantastic opportunity to explore socio-spatial behaviours and to test a variety of scenarios for public policy, the validity of generative models is uncertain unless their results are proven robust and representative of 'real-world' conditions. Sensitivity analysis usually includes the analysis of the effect of stochasticity on the variability of results, as well as the effects of small parameter changes. However, initial spatial conditions are usually not modified systematically in socio-spatial models, thus leaving unexplored the effect of initial spatial arrangements on the interactions of agents with one another as well as with their environment. In this article, we present a method to assess the effect of variation of some initial spatial conditions on simulation models, using a systematic geometric structures generator in order to create density grids with which socio-spatial simulation models are initialised. We show, with the example of two classical agent-based models (Schelling's model of segregation and Sugarscape's model of unequal societies) and a straightforward open-source workflow using high performance computing, that the effect of initial spatial arrangements is significant on the two models. We wish to illustrate the potential interest of adding spatial sensitivity analysis during the exploration of models for both modellers and thematic specialists.

Keywords: Space; Initial conditions; Sensitivity; Agent-Based Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02353359v1
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2019, 22 (4), ⟨10.18564/jasss.4136⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02353359

DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4136

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