Transferts de fonds et syndrome hollandais: le cas du Liban (1984-2016)

Cynthia Tabet, Michel Rocca () and Bachir El Murr
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Cynthia Tabet: CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Michel Rocca: CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Bachir El Murr: LU / ULB - الجامعة اللبنانية [بيروت] = Lebanese University [Beirut] = Université libanaise [Beyrouth]

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Abstract: Do migrant remittances generate Dutch disease in Lebanon? This article answers this question by using a theoretical model based on real exchange rate fundamentals and using the estimation of a VECM vector error correction model. Several conclusions are drawn. Remittances appreciate the real exchange rate during the period 1984– 2016. Furthermore, through ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments, the results indicate that remittances lead to an expansion of the non-tradable goods sector to the detriment of the productive sector. Thus, by generating a spending effect and a resource orientation effect in the short and long term, remittances deteriorate competitiveness and can cause Dutch disease in the case of Lebanon.

Keywords: remittances; dutch disease; Lebanon; vector error correction model; OLS method; GMM method; transferts; syndrome hollandais; Liban; modèle vectoriel à correction d’erreur; méthode des MCO; méthode des MMG (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06-29
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Published in Mondes en Développement, 2021, 49 (194), pp.29-57. ⟨10.3917/med.194.0029⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03286746

DOI: 10.3917/med.194.0029

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