Political shocks and economic growth. The case of Tunisia

Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie

Edwin Le Heron and Amine Marouane ()
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Amine Marouane: IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]

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Abstract: Such extreme events as a revolution, a global pandemic, or terrorist attacks are political shocks that can significantly impact confidence and economic growth. Tunisia, for which tourism is crucial, has recently undergone a revolution in 2011, two terrorist attacks in 2015, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of these political events is much greater than that of the economic crisis of 2008. Using a post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent model, the aim of this paper is to reproduce the stylized facts since 2008. We first build a confidence index, then we try to provide forecasts of the economic impact of exogenous shocks

Keywords: SFC modeling; experiments; confidence; exogenous shock; economic crisis; COVID-19; Tunisia; Modélisation stock-flux cohérente; simulation; confiance; choc exogène; crise économique; Covid19; Tunisie (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
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Published in Economie appliquée, 2021, 1, pp.159-187. ⟨10.48611/isbn.978-2-406-11904-3.p.0159⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03412949

DOI: 10.48611/isbn.978-2-406-11904-3.p.0159

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