Getting models and modellers to inform deep decarbonisation strategies

Franck Lecocq (lecocq@centre-cired.fr), Alain Nadaï (alain.nadai@cnrs.fr) and C. Cassen (cassen@centre-cired.fr)
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Alain Nadaï: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
C. Cassen: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: An increasing number of countries issue Deep Decarbonization Strategies (DDS). While DDS contents are well analysed, the processes by which they are developed attract less attention. This paper investigates what numerical model(s) are used in these processes, how they are used, and how models, modellers and stakeholders jointly contribute to the production of DDS. It draws lessons from an in-depth analysis of the second French national low-carbon strategy, complemented with insights from the US, Swedish and Brazilian DDS production processes. While configurations differ, DDS processes typically rely on multiple, sometimes overlapping models and involve a broad range of stakeholders. Articulating models together, and through stakeholder consultations, produces both numbers and collectives that share visions of the future – and both are equally important. Setting up and coordinating such assemblages of models and stakeholders requires effort, time, anticipation and resources. The cases presented here highlight the importance of technical, institutional and relational legacies (e.g. prior experience of joint work, hybrid communities), and of political support. We conclude on the importance for policymakers to account for these dimensions when setting up DDS processes and layout avenues for further research.

Keywords: Mid-century strategy; NDC; modelling assemblage; public policy; mitigation pathways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-his
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03504158v1
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Published in Climate Policy, 2021, 22 (6), pp.695-710. ⟨10.1080/14693062.2021.2002250⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03504158

DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.2002250

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