Le taux de change réel d’équilibre dans les pays en transition: le cas de la Hongrie

Nathalie Avallone and Amina Lahrèche-Révil
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Nathalie Avallone: TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Amina Lahrèche-Révil: UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne, CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: We estimate two complementary models of real equilibrium exchange rate to assess the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the hungarian Forint. The first model uses the Balassa-Samuelson effect, where the behaviour of the real exchange rate depends on the relative productivities. This second one is a model of "behavioural" real equilibrium exchange rate, relying on the simultaneous attainment of internal and external equilibrium, and using a demand-oriented approach (Edwards [1994]). On the period of analysis (1985-1997), both estimates converge on the diagnosis that the exchange rate policy of Hungary focused on external competitiveness vis-à-vis the European Union.

Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate; transition economies; Hungary; taux de change d'équilibre; pays en transition; Hongrie (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03598288v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published in 1999

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