Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2

Hippolyte d'Albis, Dramane Coulibaly, Alix Roumagnac, Eurico de Carvalho Filho and Raphaël Bertrand
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Alix Roumagnac: Predict Services [Castelnau-le-Lez]
Eurico de Carvalho Filho: Predict Services [Castelnau-le-Lez]
Raphaël Bertrand: Predict Services [Castelnau-le-Lez]

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Abstract: An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions—measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC—on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7–5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1–6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5–6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6–5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.

Date: 2021-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03672103v1
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Published in Scientific Reports, 2021, 11 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2 (2021)
Working Paper: Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2 (2021)
Working Paper: Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2 (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03672103

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2

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