Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation

Théo Benonnier, Katrin Millock () and Vis Taraz
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Théo Benonnier: ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay
Katrin Millock: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Climate variability has the potential to affect both international and internal migration profoundly. Earlier work finds that higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduces migration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints. We test whether access to irrigation modulates this temperature–migration relationship, since irrigation buffers agricultural incomes from high temperatures. We regress measures of international and internal migration on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigation and income. We find robust evidence that, for poor countries, irrigation access significantly offsets the negative effect of increasing temperatures on internal migration, as proxied by urbanisation rates. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering access to alternative adaptation strategies when analysing the temperature-migration relationship.

Keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; International migration; Irrigation; Rural-urban migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03672500v1
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Published in Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2022, 11 (3), pp.307-330. ⟨10.1080/21606544.2021.1993348⟩

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Working Paper: Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03672500

DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2021.1993348

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