Climate-dependent scenarios of land use for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the New Aquitaine region

Ny Andraina Andriamanantena, Charly Gaufreteau, Jean-Sauveur Ay and Luc Doyen ()
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Ny Andraina Andriamanantena: GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Charly Gaufreteau: GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The synergies and trade-offs between human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem services are under debate for the design of more sustainable public policies. In that perspective, there is a need of quantitative methods to compare all these outcomes under alternative policy scenarios. The present paper provides scenarios at the horizon 2053 for the New Aquitaine region in France. They rely on spatio-temporal models derived from individual land-use choices under climate change. The models are estimated at the national level from 1993 to 2003 fine-scale data. We focus on farming, forestry, and urban land uses along with bird biodiversity scores and a basket of ecosystem services, namely carbon sink, recreation, and water quality. A "climate-economic adaptation" scenario shows that climate-induced land use worsens the negative effects of climate change on biodiversity and several ecosystem services in the long run as compared to a "status quo" scenario. Another scenario with an incentive policy based on a payment for pastures slightly mitigates these impacts on biodiversity and water pollution. However, this turns out to be detrimental for other ecosystem services. This confirms that the design of sustainable policies cannot be limited to uniform strategies and should account for the complexity of ecosystem management.

Keywords: Model-based scenarios; Bio-economics; Climate; Land-useIncentive policy; Birds biodiversity; Ecosystem services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03913031v1
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Published in Regional Environmental Change, 2022, 22 (3), pp.107. ⟨10.1007/s10113-022-01964-6⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03913031

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01964-6

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