 GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAsLionel Fontagné and Gianluca Santoni Post-Print from HAL Abstract: Geographical and economic characteristics help to predict Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), and we here argue that Global Value Chains (GVCs) are one of these predictors. We estimate the time-varying probability that a country pair share a trade agreement, identify pairs who should sign an RTA and have not yet done so, and among these potential RTAs those mostly driven by the participation of the country pairs in GVCs. Using a General-Equilibrium model of an endowment economy, we construct counterfactuals where the geography of RTAs is redesigned according to our predictions and assess the trade and welfare consequences of phasing-in such pending RTAs. We last simulate the impact of a slowdown of GVCs on trade and welfare. Keywords: Preferential trade agreements; Global value chains; Structural gravity (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in European Economic Review, 2021, 132, ⟨10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103656⟩ There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03956355 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103656 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Post-Print from HAL |
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