MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy

Lionel Fontagné, Erica Perego and Gianluca Santoni

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualize them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.

Keywords: Growth models; Long-term growth; Energy use; Total Factor Productivity; Energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in International Economics, 2022, 172, pp.168-189. ⟨10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.002⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy (2022)
Journal Article: MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy (2022)
Working Paper: MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy (2022)
Working Paper: MaGE 3.1: Long-Term Macroeconomic Projections of the World Economy (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03957177

DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.002

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().