Frailty Indicator over the Adult Life Cycle as a Predictor of Healthcare Expenditure and Mortality in the Short to Midterm

Carine Milcent ()
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Carine Milcent: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Background: Assessing frailty from middle age onward offers valuable insights into predicting healthcare expenditures throughout the life cycle. Objectives: This paper examines the use of physical frailty as an indicator of healthcare demand across all age groups. The originality of this work lies in extending the analysis of frailty indicators beyond the typical focus on individuals under 50 years old to include those in mid-life and older. Methods: For this study, we used a database where frailty was measured in 2012 in a sample of individuals aged 15 to over 90. These individuals were tracked for their healthcare expenditures from 2012 to 2016. Results: Among the sample of 6928 individuals, frailty in 2012 resulted in a statistically significant increase in costs at the 5% level for the population aged 15 to 65. We applied multilevel linear regression models with year fixed effects, controlling for demographic factors, education level, precarity, social dimensions, lifestyle factors (e.g., vegetable consumption), physical activity, emotional well-being, and medical history. A Hausman test was conducted to validate the model choice. For mortality rate analysis, Cox models were used. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that physical frailty provides valuable information for understanding its impact on healthcare expenditure. The effect of frailty on mortality is particularly significant for the elderly population. Moreover, frailty is a predictor of healthcare costs not only in older adults but also across the entire life cycle.

Keywords: Healthcare expenditure; Frailty indicator; Adult life; Mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04784103v1
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Published in Healthcare, 2024, 12 (20), pp.2038. ⟨10.3390/healthcare12202038⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04784103

DOI: 10.3390/healthcare12202038

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