From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier and Sebastian Stumpner
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Jean-Charles Bricongne: Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France
Juan Carluccio: Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France, UNIS - University of Surrey
Sebastian Stumpner: Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France

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Abstract: Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters' higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.

Date: 2025-01
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Published in Journal of International Economics, 2025, 153, pp.104037. ⟨10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037⟩

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Journal Article: From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises (2025)
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Working Paper: From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04948404

DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037

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