Leaving terrorism behind? The role of terrorist attacks in shaping migration intentions around the world

Killian Foubert and Ilse Ruyssen
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Killian Foubert: UGENT - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand, UNI-CRIS
Ilse Ruyssen: UGENT - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand, UNI-CRIS

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Abstract: Terrorism globally yields severe consequences for individuals and societies, potentially driving migration within and across borders. Yet, empirical evidence on its causal impact remains limited. The contribution of our paper is twofold. First, we construct various indicators of terrorist activity at a fine level of spatial and temporal granularity, which allow to accurately identify individuals' exposure to terrorist threat. Second, we use these geo-localised indicators to empirically analyse the role of terrorist attacks in shaping internal and international migration intentions for 133 countries between 2007 and 2015. Our results indicate that terrorist attacks spur both internal and international migration intentions, though the effect is stronger for the latter. The effect on international migration intentions is linked to the intensity of attacks, rather than their frequency. Furthermore, the impact varies based on individual and country characteristics.

Keywords: Migration intentions; Terrorism; International Migration; Internal Migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Published in Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, inPress, pp.1-27. ⟨10.1080/1369183X.2024.2332742⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04954352

DOI: 10.1080/1369183X.2024.2332742

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