The Demographic Future of Humanity. After the Fear of Overpopulation, Is Depopulation Next?

El futuro demográfico de la humanidad ¿Tras el temor a la superpoblación, nos espera una era de despoblación?

Gérard-François Dumont
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Gérard-François Dumont: MÉDIATIONS - Sciences des lieux, sciences des liens - SU - Sorbonne Université

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Abstract: This text begins by showing that fears of overpopulation are long-standing and were particularly intense in the 20th century, influencing demographic debates and policies. Yet the disasters predicted by those fears regarding population growth have not materialised. This is because they failed to make the correct diagnosis and ask the necessary questions: what are the factors driving this growth? Is there a direct link between population and development? But what will become of the need for resources tomorrow, a need that was certainly dismissed yesterday? Do the processes currently underway not point to an increase in depopulation, or even an era of depopulation? An in-depth analysis, supported by numerous figures, provides answers to these questions.

Keywords: demographic dynamics,demographic transition,population policies,fertility,infant mortality,birth rate,mortality rate,natural growth rate,population projections,resources,population,overpopulation,depopulation,development,población; desarrollo; superpoblación; despoblación; dinámicas demográficas; transición demográfica; políticas de población; fecundidad; mortalidad infantil; tasa de natalidad; tasa de mortalidad; tasa de crecimiento natural; proyecciones demográficas; recursos,transition démographique,développement,surpopulation,dépopulation,dynamiques démographiques,politiques de population,fécondité,mortalité infantile,taux de natalité,taux de mortalité,taux d’accroissement naturel,projections démographiques,ressource (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
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Published in Les Analyses de Population & Avenir, 2026, 56, pp.1-37. ⟨10.3917/lap.056⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05583821

DOI: 10.3917/lap.056

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