Does irrigation reduce migration intentions after drought? Evidence from West Africa

Alix Debray, Lucile Dehouck, Katrin Millock () and Ilse Ruyssen
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Alix Debray: UGent - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand
Lucile Dehouck: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Katrin Millock: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Ilse Ruyssen: UGent - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand

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Abstract: This paper investigates whether irrigation mitigates migration intentions following drought in West Africa, addressing the limited focus on in situ adaptation within the climate – migration literature. We combine individual-level data from the Gallup World Poll with geo-referenced drought intensity and satellite-based estimates of irrigation coverage across 13 West African countries. Our findings show that drought increases migration intentions among rural households, especially in arid regions. Irrigation does not generally offset this effect, a finding robust to controls for conflict, remittances, aid, and alternative drought and irrigation measures. However, irrigation coverage becomes relevant under prolonged droughts and affects income groups differently: irrigation moderates drought-driven migration for the richest households but has no significant impact on other groups. Irrigation thus rarely substitutes for migration as an adaptation to drought, but instead reveals how in situ and mobility-based responses to climate stress are interlinked.

Date: 2026-06
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Published in Journal of Development Economics, 2026, 182, ⟨10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103806⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05659231

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103806

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