Time Series Technical Analysis via New Fast Estimation Methods: A Preliminary Study in Mathematical Finance

Michel Fliess and Cédric Join (cedric.join@cran.uhp-nancy.fr)
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Michel Fliess: LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ALIEN - Algebra for Digital Identification and Estimation - Centre Inria de l'Université de Lille - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - Centre Inria de Saclay - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - Centrale Lille - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Cédric Join: ALIEN - Algebra for Digital Identification and Estimation - Centre Inria de l'Université de Lille - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - Centre Inria de Saclay - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - Centrale Lille - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy - UHP - Université Henri Poincaré - Nancy 1 - INPL - Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of foreign exchange rates, via a "model-free" setting, i.e., via repeated identifications of low order linear difference equations on sliding short time windows. Several convincing computer simulations, including the prediction of the position and of the volatility with respect to the forecasted trendline, are provided. $\mathcal{Z}$-transform and differential algebra are the main mathematical tools.

Keywords: algebra; Time series; identification; estimation; trends; noises; model-free forecasting; mathematical finance; technical analysis; heteroscedasticity; volatility; foreign exchange rates; linear difference equations; $\mathcal{Z}$-transform; algebra. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://inria.hal.science/inria-00338099v2
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Published in IAR-ACD08 (23rd IAR Workshop on Advanced Control and Diagnosis), Nov 2008, Coventry, United Kingdom

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